First-Round Betting Sports Tips for March Madness Big Dance

First-Round Betting Sports Tips for March Madness Big Dance

The Super Bowl attracts more attention but many sports betting fans believe the opening round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, which tips off March 17 this year, is the best wagering opportunity of the year.

It's easy to see why: 32 games, starting in the morning and continuing into the night, offering non-stop betting action over two frantic days.

Bettors like the unknown (and the unknowable) as much as bookmakers fear it. Should you lay that outrageously large spread on the No. 1 ranked team over that obscure No. 16 seed or take the points with David against Goliath?

How do No. 15 seeds hold up against No. 2 seeds? Is there anything to be gained by dutifully sifting through the ruins of past years' 16-team brackets? Are there valuable clues that could unveil a winning pattern for this year's tournament?

Let's take a look:

In the history of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, a No. 16 seed never has beaten a No. 1 seed. So, prudence would dictate that taking the final seed on the money line is, well, a waste of money.

But basketball is a game primarily bet against a pointspread and No. 16 seeds, perhaps because it's so difficult for oddsmakers to come up with an accurate number on what are mostly obscure, off-the-board outfits, have been highly competitive versus No. 1 seeds when the line becomes a part of the wagering equation. In fact, since 2002, No. 16 seeds are 14-13-1 against the spread (ATS) versus No. 1 seeds. So, you can't automatically toss out a No. 16 seed against the top team in the bracket.

While the history of 1 versus 16 is inclusive, there's no doubt that college basketball betting devotees have made a bundle of dough taking the points with No. 15 seeds against No. 2 seeds in the Big Dance's opening round.

Led by unheralded teams with limited or no pointspread resumes such as Winthrop, Hampton, Montana, Florida Atlantic, Vermont, Central Florida, Southeast Louisiana, Eastern Kentucky, American University, Belmont, East Tennessee State, Illinois-Chicago and Penn, since 2002, No. 15 seeds are a healthy 18-10 ATS versus No. 2 seeds. There were no outright wins last year but Belmont, a 21-point underdog, came close, losing to Duke by just a point, 71-70.

Since they are more adept at dealing with teams with which they have a pointspread familiarity, you might assume, as the seeds narrow and as the straight up (SU) mismatches disappear, oddsmakers would do a better job with the numbers. Hmm, yes and no.

Since 2002, in opening round play, No. 3 seeds hold a 15-12-1 pointspread advantage over No. 14 seeds.

Thanks largely to a 7-1 spurt the past two seasons, No. 4 seeds are 16-12 ATS versus No. 13 seeds in first round action. And while the media makes much of the notion that No. 12 seeds regularly upend No. 5 seeds, the pointspread matchup is dead even at 13-13-2, since 2002.

Interestingly and this does make sense from an oddsmaking standpoint--the higher seeds have enjoyed their greatest wagering advantage when the difference between the teams is obvious but not overwhelming. Thus, since 2002, No. 6 seeds are 17-11 ATS versus No. 11 seeds and No. 7 seeds are 20-8 ATS versus No. 10 seeds. When the picture gets a bit murkier, as in the case of evenly matched No. 8 and No. 9 seeds, the record gets closer as well, with No. 8 seeds on top of No. 9 seeds by a narrow 14-13-1 margin.

It seems clear then that oddsmakers have had their most difficulty assigning odds to the bigger mismatches and, if you fancy underdogs, your best NCAA Tournament basketball betting opportunities in the first round are with the No. 15 seeds. College basketball betting enthusiasts who prefer to back the favorite, will want to take a look at No. 6 and No. 7 seeds. Make sure you keep the above in mind when doing your March Madness bracket contest this year.


First-Round Betting Sports Tips for March Madness Big Dance