The latest podcast with discussions a review of yesterday’s picks and today’s lock of the day in the NBA and NCAA.
More information on Betting Sports can be found at the Betting Sports Blog.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Betting Sports Podcast 03/01
The latest podcast with discussions a review of yesterday’s picks and today’s lock of the day in the NBA and NCAA.
How to Bet a Tease Bet When Betting Sports
Sports Books, the temples of betting sports in Las Vegas, are littered with long, pink, yellow or white cards with titles like "Super Teaser", "Ties Win Teaser", or "Super Duper Teaser Special" or any other kind of schmaltzy marketing title to hook in the unsuspecting sports bettor.
On first glance, these wager vehicles seem to good to be true. If this weekend's game happens to have USC giving 8 points against Oregon, you might not be so inclined to make the bet as USC would have to win by a touchdown AND another score for you to collect your winnings. But wait, those funky little teaser cards show USC GETTING 2 points as the underdog!!! How is this possible? You've just GOT to take that bet, right? And that, my friends is the reason the sports books have teaser cards.
Here are the basic rules of a teaser card: The lines on the games on the schedule are all adjusted by at lease 8 - 10 points, depending on the card rules. This means that the favorite is given a major reduction in the points that they have to "cover" for the win. This also means that the underdogs are padded with an even greater cushion of points that they can lose by and still provide a winning pick. So, what's the catch? The catch on these cards is you have to make at least 4 picks and ALL of the picks have to be winners for you to collect anything.
Now, here is the sad reality of sports betting: Even with adjusted spreads like these, it is very difficult to correctly pick four out of four games. These teaser cards are designed, of course, to entice you to make a bet you might otherwise would never have made. They are the equivalent of the blinking lights on top of a row of slot machines. They are screaming at you across the casino and grabbing your attention. But don't waste your nickel… it's not worth it.
The right way to bet a teaser bet.
Despite the dubious nature of the teaser cards, there exists an actual and legitimate way to use teaser rules to your advantage when betting sports. Just walk right past those silly cards and step up to the window. Ask the attendant for a two-team teaser and name your teams. Here's what you'll get: Say you want the Lakers and the Celtics on a two team teaser, and the Lakers are 3 point favorites against the Heat, and the Celtics are 8 point dogs against the Cavs. Your bet would then be: Lakers +1 and Celtics +12. On a standard, 2 team teaser in basketball adjusts the spread by four points. In football the spread adjusts 6 points.
Oh, one last catch: For the privilege of playing a teaser bet, you have to pay "Double Juice" to the book. In other words, for a standard, one team bet against the spread, you have to bet the equivalent of $110 for every $100 you want to win. The extra $10 is the "Juice". For a 2-team teaser, you pay $120 for every $100 bet.
All in all, teaser bets can be a great way to minimize risk and maximize winnings when
betting sports at a casino. Equipped with the basic knowledge and a good strategies, you can beat the book in the long run by being a better bettor, instead of just another gambler.
Lawrence O'Connor is an avid sports fan and blogger. He only bets in Vegas and only a couple of times a year. His Betting Sports blog and podcast are updated daily.
On first glance, these wager vehicles seem to good to be true. If this weekend's game happens to have USC giving 8 points against Oregon, you might not be so inclined to make the bet as USC would have to win by a touchdown AND another score for you to collect your winnings. But wait, those funky little teaser cards show USC GETTING 2 points as the underdog!!! How is this possible? You've just GOT to take that bet, right? And that, my friends is the reason the sports books have teaser cards.
Here are the basic rules of a teaser card: The lines on the games on the schedule are all adjusted by at lease 8 - 10 points, depending on the card rules. This means that the favorite is given a major reduction in the points that they have to "cover" for the win. This also means that the underdogs are padded with an even greater cushion of points that they can lose by and still provide a winning pick. So, what's the catch? The catch on these cards is you have to make at least 4 picks and ALL of the picks have to be winners for you to collect anything.
Now, here is the sad reality of sports betting: Even with adjusted spreads like these, it is very difficult to correctly pick four out of four games. These teaser cards are designed, of course, to entice you to make a bet you might otherwise would never have made. They are the equivalent of the blinking lights on top of a row of slot machines. They are screaming at you across the casino and grabbing your attention. But don't waste your nickel… it's not worth it.
The right way to bet a teaser bet.
Despite the dubious nature of the teaser cards, there exists an actual and legitimate way to use teaser rules to your advantage when betting sports. Just walk right past those silly cards and step up to the window. Ask the attendant for a two-team teaser and name your teams. Here's what you'll get: Say you want the Lakers and the Celtics on a two team teaser, and the Lakers are 3 point favorites against the Heat, and the Celtics are 8 point dogs against the Cavs. Your bet would then be: Lakers +1 and Celtics +12. On a standard, 2 team teaser in basketball adjusts the spread by four points. In football the spread adjusts 6 points.
Oh, one last catch: For the privilege of playing a teaser bet, you have to pay "Double Juice" to the book. In other words, for a standard, one team bet against the spread, you have to bet the equivalent of $110 for every $100 you want to win. The extra $10 is the "Juice". For a 2-team teaser, you pay $120 for every $100 bet.
All in all, teaser bets can be a great way to minimize risk and maximize winnings when
betting sports at a casino. Equipped with the basic knowledge and a good strategies, you can beat the book in the long run by being a better bettor, instead of just another gambler.
Lawrence O'Connor is an avid sports fan and blogger. He only bets in Vegas and only a couple of times a year. His Betting Sports blog and podcast are updated daily.
Friday, February 29, 2008
The Dangers of Doubling Down When Betting Sports.
We all know what a double down is, don't we? Let's review: You're playing blackjack, you get a 6 and a 5. The dealer has a 6 showing. Now, let's look at the odds. Every 52 card deck has 28 cards that would make your 11 a good blackjack hand. There are four 7s, four 8s, four 9s, four 10s and 12 face cards. All of those cards give you a 17 or better. That's a better than 50/50 chance you will get a good card.
On the other side of the coin, those same odds work in favor of you with regard to hurting the dealer's hand. The odds are better than 50/50 that he will have a card in the hole (the dealer's facedown card) that gives the dealer a 16, 15, 14, or 13. Then the odds are better than 50/50 that the next card the dealer draws will bust him (the same 7, 8, 9, 10, or face card that helps you will kill his hand).
All of these factors give you an excellent chance of winning your hand. So, what do you do? You use the greatest gift ever given to a bettor in Las Vegas: The Double Down! You double you existing bet, and you get one card. Odds are it will help your hand. You then wait for the dealer's cards to come up and as we have discovered, odds are his hand will be destroyed with their card. So you've doubled your winnings.
As you can see, in blackjack, the double down is a great opportunity to win extra money when the odds are with you. But, in betting sports at a sports book, some gamblers fall into a trap of doubling down in a very different way. After a series of losses, they will pick one game and load up on it trying to break even and climb out of hteir hole. By using the opposite of good money management skills, they have a 50/50 shot of actually doubling their losses in stead of doubling their winnings.
In blackjack, you only double your bet in those instances when all of the odds are working in your favor. This makes a very smart wager. But chasing a losing trend with a giant bet, trying to go "double or nothing" is a loser's bet and defies logic. And yet, you see it every day .
Wise money management habits in sports betting dictate that reasonable wagers in the same monetary unit for your wagers is the best way to minimize exposure to risk and maximize potential winnings. The only time you should increase your bets is after a winning pattern emerges and you have a bank of winnings to draw off of.
Conversely, the only wise betting pattern you should establish after a string of losses, is to reduce the amounts of the units you are betting until a winning trend emerges.
Doubling down is a great idea in blackjack, it is disastrous when
betting sports .
Lawrence O'Connor is an avid sports fan and blogger. He only bets in Vegas and only a couple of times a year. His
betting sports blog and podcast are updated daily.
On the other side of the coin, those same odds work in favor of you with regard to hurting the dealer's hand. The odds are better than 50/50 that he will have a card in the hole (the dealer's facedown card) that gives the dealer a 16, 15, 14, or 13. Then the odds are better than 50/50 that the next card the dealer draws will bust him (the same 7, 8, 9, 10, or face card that helps you will kill his hand).
All of these factors give you an excellent chance of winning your hand. So, what do you do? You use the greatest gift ever given to a bettor in Las Vegas: The Double Down! You double you existing bet, and you get one card. Odds are it will help your hand. You then wait for the dealer's cards to come up and as we have discovered, odds are his hand will be destroyed with their card. So you've doubled your winnings.
As you can see, in blackjack, the double down is a great opportunity to win extra money when the odds are with you. But, in betting sports at a sports book, some gamblers fall into a trap of doubling down in a very different way. After a series of losses, they will pick one game and load up on it trying to break even and climb out of hteir hole. By using the opposite of good money management skills, they have a 50/50 shot of actually doubling their losses in stead of doubling their winnings.
In blackjack, you only double your bet in those instances when all of the odds are working in your favor. This makes a very smart wager. But chasing a losing trend with a giant bet, trying to go "double or nothing" is a loser's bet and defies logic. And yet, you see it every day .
Wise money management habits in sports betting dictate that reasonable wagers in the same monetary unit for your wagers is the best way to minimize exposure to risk and maximize potential winnings. The only time you should increase your bets is after a winning pattern emerges and you have a bank of winnings to draw off of.
Conversely, the only wise betting pattern you should establish after a string of losses, is to reduce the amounts of the units you are betting until a winning trend emerges.
Doubling down is a great idea in blackjack, it is disastrous when
betting sports .
Lawrence O'Connor is an avid sports fan and blogger. He only bets in Vegas and only a couple of times a year. His
betting sports blog and podcast are updated daily.
When Betting Sports, Leave the Action Outside
You see it all the time... You go to the sports book in Vegas (the home of betting sports) and there are crowds of men watching 15 TV screens at once. They're clutching handfuls of tickets from betting sports of all kinds... football, basketball, hockey, college and pro... all betting on these games at the same time.
They're cheering one screen and screaming at the next. It's a raucus atmosphere and can't be matched anywhere else for the true sports fan. These gamblers all have one thing in common: They're there for the "ACTION".
I remember the last time I was in Vegas with my "Band of Betting Brothers" and the afternoon college games had just finished. We're on our way our to our traditional Lawry's Prime Rib dinner and one of the guys stops me on the way out the door and says, "Larry, give me a pick in the late Hawaii game, I gotta have some action during dinner."
This mindset of always needing to have some money "working" on one game or another is the epitome of the rush a gambler gets from betting sports. Unfortunately, it's another sample of the behaviors the casino owners are counting on from the gamblers in their fine hotels.
It makes no sense. The sooner a gambler starts to look at a bet on sports as an investment rather than a gamble, he will become a bettor instead of a gmabler... a better bettor at that!
You need discipline, but the way to minimize risk and maximize earnings when betting sports is to analyze the games, find your top one, two or three plays, and play those games ONLY. If you play a whole slate of 15 to 20 games, what are the odds you're going to come out ahead? Also, if you do lose, you will probably lose big.
The better way to approach it is to consolidate your wagers into a small number of games, bet the same amount for each bet (remember, each bet is a 50/50 proposition, there are no odds so you don't do yourself any favors by weighting your bets across multiple games), and wait for the results happy that you have enough "action" for the day.
Odds are, you will either hit 2 out of 3 picks, or lose 2 out of 3 picks. This is a reasonable expectation and will keep you in the game longer... which is what you want in the long run, isn't it?
Lawrence O'Connor is an avid sports fan, blogger and podcaster. His Betting Sports blog and podcast is updated daily with advice & picks.
They're cheering one screen and screaming at the next. It's a raucus atmosphere and can't be matched anywhere else for the true sports fan. These gamblers all have one thing in common: They're there for the "ACTION".
I remember the last time I was in Vegas with my "Band of Betting Brothers" and the afternoon college games had just finished. We're on our way our to our traditional Lawry's Prime Rib dinner and one of the guys stops me on the way out the door and says, "Larry, give me a pick in the late Hawaii game, I gotta have some action during dinner."
This mindset of always needing to have some money "working" on one game or another is the epitome of the rush a gambler gets from betting sports. Unfortunately, it's another sample of the behaviors the casino owners are counting on from the gamblers in their fine hotels.
It makes no sense. The sooner a gambler starts to look at a bet on sports as an investment rather than a gamble, he will become a bettor instead of a gmabler... a better bettor at that!
You need discipline, but the way to minimize risk and maximize earnings when betting sports is to analyze the games, find your top one, two or three plays, and play those games ONLY. If you play a whole slate of 15 to 20 games, what are the odds you're going to come out ahead? Also, if you do lose, you will probably lose big.
The better way to approach it is to consolidate your wagers into a small number of games, bet the same amount for each bet (remember, each bet is a 50/50 proposition, there are no odds so you don't do yourself any favors by weighting your bets across multiple games), and wait for the results happy that you have enough "action" for the day.
Odds are, you will either hit 2 out of 3 picks, or lose 2 out of 3 picks. This is a reasonable expectation and will keep you in the game longer... which is what you want in the long run, isn't it?
Lawrence O'Connor is an avid sports fan, blogger and podcaster. His Betting Sports blog and podcast is updated daily with advice & picks.
Betting Sports 2/29
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The latest podcast with discussions related to how many games to play any given day, a review of yesterday’s picks and today’s lock of the day in the NBA.
More information on Betting Sports can be found at the Betting Sports Blog.
Sports Betting and Money Management Tips
The latest explosion in sports betting in the USA has become a bonanza for Las Vegas as well as on-line gambling sites. But those hotels and web empires are built with each mounting loss from today's avid sports gambler. If only the everyday sports gambler used simple logic and money management skills when approaching his daily picks.
Money Management in sports betting can sometimes be the difference between losing your shirt and breaking even.
For example. Many gamblers will purchase a "service" and receive multiple picks for a given day. They are usually ranked (5 star pick, 4 star picks, etc.). Your average gambler looking at this slate of picks will weight his wagers according to the "value" assigned to each pick. But this is a critical error. If you through $500 at your 5-star pick, and $200 at the lowly 2-star pick, you are exposing yourself to unneeded losses.
The first lesson is: If the pick is only a "2-star", DON'T PLAY IT!!! This may seem simplistic, but think about it: If you were given 2 stock tips, and one was a SURE THING and the other one was described as less than 50/50 that it might pay off, would you even bother investing in the "iffy" pick? NO, of course you wouldn't. You lesson number one: Be disciplined and only bet the picks that you are sure of (or close to sure of).
The second lesson is: Bet the same amount across the board. If you do not have the discipline to only bet the top rated picks, and you need to have "action" on multiple games, bet the same number of units on all the picks. The fact of the matter is, every single bet you place is an individual, 50/50 proposition. If you start betting different amounts on all of those 50/50 propositions, the odds are you will end up in the hole, even if you win more picks than you lose.
Do the math, use discipline and don't be a GAMBLER, be a BETTOR. Gamblers take risks, Bettors make smart decisions and have a good chance of making money.
About the Author
Lawrence O'Connor is an avid sports fan, blogger and podcaster. His Betting Sport blog and podcast is updated daily.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Sports Betting Podcast 2/28 posted
Betting Sports Podcast 2.28 New Podcast on Betting Sports has just been posted. Sports Betting is discussed in depth including teaser bets and other Sports Betting strategies.
Betting Tips
My picks yesterday could have been better.
I was Betting Sports and I picked Orlando, Detroit and Portland.
Portland won so my Sports Betting wasn't a total loss. But when Betting Sports you have to take the losses with the wins.
I could use some Betting Tips in the future.
I was Betting Sports and I picked Orlando, Detroit and Portland.
Portland won so my Sports Betting wasn't a total loss. But when Betting Sports you have to take the losses with the wins.
I could use some Betting Tips in the future.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
NFL Situation Spotlight - #6: Teams in an Away Sandwich (AS). by Dennis Arthur
Anyone who has been handicapping the NFL spread using situational methods for any length of time is probably familiar with the term 'sandwich' (as it applies to sports betting). For those that are thinking more along the lines of sliced ham or turkey: in the realm of NFL handicapping, it refers to a situation that looks at a window of 3 consecutive games where the 'middle' game is surrounded, or sandwiched by a different circumstance that is present in the other 2 games.Here is a fairly simple example of a 'sandwich' at work: It involves teams that are facing a non-divisional opponent after facing a divisional opponent with a SU WP > .500 in their past game AND also have a divisional opponent with a SU WP > .500 coming up in their next game. Teams in this situation happen to be a dismal 42-64 ATS since 1994.This sounds great on the surface, but, there are potential problems with this kind of analysis.Situations and past trends built on sandwiches are, as a rule, fairly simplistic in nature. Most are based on scheduling factors that do not require an overly complicated database or an especially sharp handicapper to find. As a result, many situations of this type have been overused and grasped onto by the general bettor over the past 15-20 years, thereby reducing their effectiveness and profitability.The let-down situation I briefly described earlier concerning teams facing a Non-Divisional opponent is a good example: After going 32-57 ATS between 1994 and 2003, teams in this spot have turned things around in the past 4 years with a 10-7 record against the spread.All is not lost, however. Situational trends that involve sandwiches can still be profitable. The caveat is that we simply have to become a little more advanced as to what other conditions are included, so that the circumstances surrounding the situation are not something that the majority of bettors placing wagers each week will be aware of.The particular trend I would like to look at for this article involves teams in an Away Sandwich which includes all teams playing their current game on the road, after a home game and preceding another home game.By itself, this situation has not been profitable over the past 14 years (605-644 ATS for the team involved). But, when we add 2 other conditions to the mix, we have ourselves a very powerful trend that has been a consistent winner for 14 straight years.If we go on to specify that the team in question must have an above average Pass Offense Rating (POF > 0), we suddenly have a situation that is 247-315 (44.0%) ATS since 1994, producing a profit of $4,330.00 (wagering $110 to win back $100 on each game while betting against this team, of course). Not bad for a basic trend that is built on only 2 conditions.For those who are not familiar with my calculation of POF: this is a rating built on yards-per-play stats that are adjusted for the strength of all opponents faced.As an example, if Atlanta were to average 5.8 yards-per-pass on offense versus a group of opponents that normally gives up an average of 6.3 yards-per-pass, their POF rating would effectively be -0.50 (6.3 - 5.8). It should be noted that plays such as Quarterback kneel-downs and spiked balls are not included in the calculation of pass ratings and extremely long pass plays are capped at 60 yards.The last primary condition (i.e., building block) that needs to be added to this situation specifies that the current opponent for teams involved must have a below average Passing Game Rating (PG <> 10%) are also not included. Finally, teams in this situation must have a Rush Defense Rating that is no more than 1 point higher than their current opponent.This particular situation is one of the most extensive out of the 100+ that I track each season. It has a TDIS% (Trend Distribution Percentage) of 100%; meaning, every single team in the NFL has been involved at some point or another since 1994. A high TDIS% adds to a trends stability and the chances are very good that this situation will perform well, once again, in 2008.Here are all the details.(Notes: ASM stands for Average Spread Margin and TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average Spread for teams in this situation.)Situational Trend #6 SummaryPrimary Conditions (Building Blocks)1) Team is in an Away Sandwich (AS).2) Team has an Above Average Pass Offense Rating (POF).3) Current Opponent has a Below Average Passing Game Rating (POF + PDE).Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)1) Team Rush Defense Rating - Opponent RDE <= 1.2) Exclude Sack Percentage Against (SK%A) > 10.3) Team is not coming off a BYE WEEK.Situation StatsASM: -4.7Home%: 0.0Dog%: 37.5TDIS%: 100.0WT%: 73.2SPR: -1.84Top Teams: GB(16); DAL(15); NO(15); MIN(13)Situation RecordsOverall (Since '94): 77-173 ATS2007 Season: 4-12 ATS2006 Season: 6-13 ATS2005 Season: 12-15 ATS2004 Season: 6-15 ATSLast 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.2007 WK16â€"SF 21 TB 19 (TB -6) L2007 WK16â€"CIN 19 CLE 14 (CLE -3) L2007 WK15â€"CAR 13 SEA 10 (SEA -7) L
About the Author
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and situational trend analysis, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.
About the Author
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and situational trend analysis, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.
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